Chicken licken (The sky is falling in!)
The nice people at www.webmd.com have asked if I would be good enough to give further Vietnam perspectives on the whole bird flu thing. Webmd people.... cut and paste from here:There’s two words that keep cropping up in discussions here about the Avian virus and it’s got nothing to do with chickens.
It’s the millennium bug. Remember that? Remember the cheer when the clock struck 12 and then the intake of breath as you awaited planes falling from the sky and cars veering off roads.
We were told it would happen. It didn’t. And afterwards there wasn’t much in the way of finger pointing as to why the doomsday predictions didn’t come true. I think for the most part we all thought we had been pretty much conned by the IT consultants. I think we all thought it would be less embarrassing if we just let it go and quietly dropped the subject.
But that’s business I guess. Before I came to do voluntary work in Vietnam I worked for a PR company. Imagine then that you work in PR and your client is a fowl expert, a drug producer or an agricultural adviser. What are you doing right now? Well you’re lobbying your government for increased funds. You’re writing opinion articles for the press (the scarier the better).Your putting out newsletters to the database telling them of the horrors of Avian flu and how your client can help you combat it.
It’s a potential worldwide pandemic. It’s a potential goldmine, for some, too.
No harm in the press repeating these scare stories either. It all sells papers. Remember “45 minutes from attack” – that wasn’t true either.
I’ve written before on what I’ve called the chicken race here in Vietnam. Namely the fact that it seems to me that no one is going to wait for tests that prove human to human spread of the disease. Because once it is proven then borders will already be closed to us ex-pats.
So what will happen?
Well, my guess would be that at the slightest rumour of any human to human spread no one is going to hang around for official confirmation. They’ll be on planes home while they still can. One embassy will decide to go then the chain reaction will start and everyone will be gone.
And for embassy staff that won’t be such a bad deal. They’ll get to see their families back home. They’ll be on full pay. For volunteers it’s not so great – our subsistence wage doesn’t exactly go too far in the west.
But all that pales into insignificance compared with what we leave behind. What becomes of my employer KOTO? A charity set up five years ago to help provide hospitality industry training for streetkids – it survives because of the restaurant we run that caters for tourists. No tourists – no customers – no money.
And what happens to my Vietnamese colleagues?
Or what about my friend who runs a bar in Hanoi? He’s sweated blood alongside his staff to make it work. And it is working. And he’s providing jobs for young people.
What about the cyclo drivers, the hotel staff or the family who have borrowed money to pay for a hotel?
And of course if the nightmare scenario of human to human spread does occur then the borders have to close. Countries will be no go areas. But what about right now? Will this all blow over, like SARS before it? Leaving little behind except a heavily dented tourist industry.
So far it’s good for the consultants and the drug companies – but bad for the cyclo driver in Hanoi. Even while borders are still open, people are going to think twice before visiting Vietnam.
So are the scare stories justified? Is that how you get though to government? Or do they just sell newspapers and ultimately sell consultancy services and medical drugs?
And living here, of course, I have tried to keep up to date with what is happening. One day I read that the odds of human to human spread are 10,000-1. The next day I read that it WILL happen. No doubts, no odds, just certainty.
I can’t say it won’t happen. And I can’t blame people for planning for the worst.
But in the meantime it’s livelihoods that are being messed with here. Tourism offers a way for Vietnam to grow and for individuals to carve out a good career. Vietnam appears to be turning the corner. The improvements in living standards here are to be seen everywhere. And year on year it gets better.. Vietnam does not need a setback.
And putting aside the doomsday hype, what if it really does happen? All of those of us who work here to hopefully help improve living standards – do we leave our Vietnamese colleagues and friends to face this pandemic? We’re glad to stand shoulder to shoulder with them during times of hardship…but not too hard. Sorry guys, I’m on the plane..have my box of Tamiflu I’m out of here.
The Tamiflu thing is strange. Many of us lucky rich foreigners have been issued the little boxes. But the only situation that I would ever get to use it would be if I was the first person I know to get the disease. Otherwise, when my colleague’s mother’s friend’s daughter gets ill – they’ll come asking for my Tamiflu. What am I going to say… “Sorry mate, tough luck that’s mine…just in case I get sick sometime in the distant future”?
And we’re told there will be no doctors to treat us. There will be doctors – the same doctors that always treat our Vietnamese colleagues. Just not the western doctors that our healthcare cover pays for in the “international” clinics. They will have left too.
So if the embassy orders come asking us to evacuate (if we can beat the border closures), what will I do?
I’d love to think that I’d be macho and stay and stick with KOTO while trying to work out how the hell we can keep it going without tourists.
But I don’t know. I really don’t know. Staying in the centre of a pandemic without health insurance is not smart. Not when you have family at home worrying about you. Not when you have the option and the means to leave.
We can just hope it never comes. And if that’s the case then the scare stories will be just another doomsday that didn’t dawn. And in the meantime there will be people and industries that got rich on the warnings and the panic.
But it’s not helping anyone here.
* Just wanted to add – as ever my Vietnamese colleagues think we are all crazy when we discuss all of this repeatedly. They don’t panic here in the same way that us soft westerners do. Blame it partly on managed news sources here, but mostly on the attitude of “why worry if there’s nothing I can do about it”. If Vietnam is the front line against the disease then you wouldn’t know it – except in our little ex-pat bubbles.
I would still advise anyone to come to Vietnam. It remains the most incredible place I have ever been.



































